Madonna Journal of Economics and Finance

Trade Openness and Agricultural Export In Nigeria

Paul O. Elekwa — 2022-04-12

This work examined the impact of trade openness on Nigeria’s agricultural products exports for the period 1970 to 2018. Using ARDL methodology, the analysis revealed that in the long run trade openness had a positive but statistically insignificant effect on agricultural export while in the short run its effect was positive but significant. Based on such outcome, it was recommended amongst others that government should adopt selective trade barriers to allow the agricultural sector benefit from openness to trade.

Keywords: trade openness, agricultural exports, auto regressive distributive lag.

JEL: F19 F50 Q17

Oil Exploration and Environmental Security Challenges In Nigeria: Niger-Delta Experience

Clement Nwafor Okonkwo — 2022-04-12

This study interrogated the nexus between crude oil production and environmental security challenges in the Niger-Delta region, Nigeria, between 2015 and 2021. Documentary method of data collection and content analysis were applied. Rentier State theory served as the theoretical fulcrum around which the study revolved. It was found that the atavistic pursuit of wealth by oil companies and the rentier nature of Nigerian economy brought about neglect or insensitivity on the part of both the government and the oil companies, to the Niger-Delta environment where the oil rent is generated. As a result the region experienced environmental security challenges. It was suggested among others that the Nigerian government should take practical steps to contain all those activities of the multinational oil companies that bring about environmental hazard, activities such as oil spillage and gas flaring.

Keywords: Environmental Security, Gas Flaring, Oil Spillage and Sustainable Development

JEL: Q52 Q56

External Debt and Nigeria’s Real Economy

Okwuchi S. UWAKAEME — 2022-04-12

In recent times, there have been several agitations by stakeholders on the increasing level of Nigeria’s external debt while her real economic growth (RGDP) has remained sluggish and suboptimal. Global attempts to validate the relationship between external debt and RGDP by economic scholars have also generated mixed results. It is therefore pertinent for this study to reexamine the problem empirically and holistically. The study applied co-integration procedures, unit root test, error correction model, and Granger causality test, using time series data sourced from CBN, spanning from 1980 to 2020. The empirical finding demonstrates that external debt, external debt interest charges and foreign exchange rate are adversely affecting the growth of the real economy. The study recommends measures to ensure that borrowed funds are spent on projects they are tied to. Furthermore, policy makers should take cognizance of policy lag effect, which was also uncovered in the study, and select policies in line with the expected magnitude of expected changes.

Keywords: external debt, exchange rate, real economy, co-integration, error correction model

JEL: E00 H63

Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Price In Nigeria

Wilson Ebhotemhen — 2022-04-13

This study examined the effects of selected macroeconomic variables on stock market price in Nigeria, using quarterly time series data for the period 1985 to 2020, and the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) modeling technique. The results show that there exists a long-run relationship among stock prices, inflation rate, interest rate and real gross domestic product for the period under study. The variance decomposition results indicate that inflation rates, real GDP growth, interest rates are the key drivers of stock market price. The study therefore recommends a complete overhaul of current policies which have produced a regime of both high interest and inflation rates and a sluggish output growth.

Keywords: Stock Market Price, macroeconomic determinants, variance decomposition

JEL: O16 and L

Aging Population and Its Effect On The Nigerian Economy

Chinyere T. Ubochi-Nwankwo — 2022-04-13

This study examined the effect of aging population on Nigeria’s economy from 1985 to 2018. An Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was formulated to establish the relationship between aging population and its effects on Nigeria’s economy Secondary data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical bulletin was used for the study. The findings revealed a significant relationship between old age dependency ratio and per capita GDP; also, it was found that health care and public pension expenditures significantly impact per capita GDP in Nigeria. National Aging policy and a review of public health care expenditures were called for. In particular, the need to reorganise health care expenditure to reflect a positive relationship with economic welfare was recommended.

Keywords: Aging population, Dependency Ratio, ARDL

JEL: J26 O40

Inflation and Manufacturing Output in Nigeria

Theophilus Ifeanyi Ugwoke — 2022-04-14

Over the years, the government of Nigeria has made several efforts to develop the manufacturing sector, yet the sector has continued to perform poorly, becoming increasingly weaker presumably on account of inflationary pressures accompanying the import of manufactured goods. This work is therefore aimed at investigating the impact of inflation on the manufacturing sector output in Nigeria using time series data obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), World Bank Development Indicators (WDI) and World Economic Organization (WEO). The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound test approach was adopted. The result revealed that inflation rate was correctly signed and thus had a negative effect on the manufacturing sector output, although this proved to be statistically insignificant. The paper recommended that government should encourage investors in local raw materials through direct incentives, and overhaul access to credit for the productive sector particularly the manufacturing sector.

Keywords: Manufacturing Output, Inflation rate, Exchange rate, Sectoral credit allocation.

JEL: E31 O14

How Does Public Debt Affect Unemployment in Nigeria

Paul O. Elekwa — 2022-04-28

The study examined the impact of disaggregated debt components on unemployment in Nigeria covering the period 1992 to 2020. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method was used on account of the outcome of stationarity tests of the times series data. The result showed a highly positive and significant relationship between unemployment and external debt. The recommendations include that a fundamental consideration for any future public borrowing should be its employment generation capacity. An employment generation benchmark needs to be established for all future borrowing, in recognition of the principle that where no new employment can be generated, existing ones should not be endangered.

Keywords: external debt, OLS, ARDL, unemployment.

JEL: E24 H63 H81 J64